I have a differing opinion and it's not backed up with a single statistic. Only observation. If I had the time to labor over the stats, I might find that I was wrong. But here's what I saw. . . . .
Pitching. Particularly at the back end, our pitching wasn't terribly strong. Against weak hitting foes like BAL and DET, the starters were, for the most part, adequate (spot starter Bush was living on the edge his entire time). But the bullpen wasn't shut down, which they needed to be because. . . . .
Hitting. They're just now coming around, but Kinsler, Andrus, and Beltre were very light in the numbers. Some of those games shouldn't have been that close, particularly in DET. The hitters are handcuffed a bit because. . . .
Hamilton. Even when he's off kilter a bit, Josh is such a presence at the plate that it affects the way pitchers operate against everyone else in the line up. With him gone, the pitchers had a different approach to the rest of the line up. If I were to do a statistical analysis, I might be proven otherwise. And MYoung has stepped in admirably, but he is not the same basher as Hamilton. He strikes fear, but not trembling, the hearts of opposing pitching.
MY two cents worth. But Rob could be totally correct.
]]>Bad Weather
Slumping hitters
Bullpen woes
All these are valid reasons, and there is one that I have not heard mentioned: home runs. Through the first ten games, the pitching staff gave up 6 home runs or .6 per game. The next five games, they gave up 7 home runs or 1.4 per game.
Here is why I am focusing on the home runs. All of the games that Texas lost were close. At some point doing each of those losses, the pitching staff, starters or relievers, gave up a key home run that either won the game or put the game out of the reach for our struggling offense.
My two cents.
Freakish play. Foul ball. Nobody covering home.
Aggressive play to try to take advantage.
Head-first slide. Tagged out.
Broken shoulder, arm? Still not sure exactly what the injury is.
So Hamilton is gone again. And not just a two-week DL stint, but at a minimum 6-8 weeks. So here's the conundrum: Do you build your team around a player who is injury-prone?
Everyone agree that when Josh is healthy, he is one of the best players in baseball today. The question is: How much risk does Hamilton assume and how much risk do the Rangers assume. That is what lead to contentious contract negotiation over the winter between Hamilton and the Rangers. In my opinion, they made a great compromise. Giving Josh a larger contract but not full value with two years to prove he can stay healthy.
Josh's newest injury just reminds us all of this conundrum.
]]>Well, 2010 is here. The Rangers will win the division. If. If what?
If one of our young catchers establishes himself? No.
If the Rangers find a replacement for Vizquel as the utility infielder? No.
If the Rangers return to its offensive production of years past? No.
If the Rangers starters win 60 games? Maybe
If the Rangers starters win 65 games? Probably
If the Rangers starters win 70 games? Definitely
The most important factor for the Rangers to win this year is starting pitching. In order for the starters to win that many games, they will have to be good. If they are good all year, that means that the defense behind will be supporting them. It means that when the offensive tanks that pitching carries this team. For an organization that has been stymied in its development of starting pitching, if the rotation wins that many games, it will be a sign that the organization is turning it around. And at this point, it is not with the young players that we have been talking about the last three years.
I am ready for the season to start.
]]>When Chris "Crush" Davis exploded onto the Rangers scene in the middle of '08, hitting homeruns and playing inspiring defense, we all looked at each other and said "Texieria who?" Going into the '09 Spring Training, we had a lot of questions. We were wondering how the highly controversial move of Michael Young and the promotion of Elvis Andrus was going to effect the team. We were wondering if Kinsler's hands were going to get any softer. We were trying to decide between Salty and Teagarden. But we we were not worried about 1B. We had a sure thing over there.
Now that we've discovered that Young fits nicely at 3rd, Andrus' promotion was well deserved and Kinsler can have some soft hands, we're pereplexed about Chris Davis' bat. And the horrific number of times it seems to miss hitting the ball. There's probably nobody who is wondering what happened more than the former star of the Longview H.S. (TX) Lobos.
With Davis on his way to shattering (no pun intended) the season strikeout record, everyone wants to know one thing: What happened? And everyone wants to know: When's the Rangers braintrust gonna send Crush to OKC to figure it out?
One quick observation: Would we be as worried if the .200 BA was coming with less strikeouts? If Chris was putting more balls in play, walking more and flying out to CF, would there be as much of a hullabaloo about sending Davis to the Redhawks? When David Murphy started the season going 0-for-everything, he was doing so with fly balls and ground outs. No one was clamoring for his demotion.
With seemingly everyone packing Davis' bags for him, here are my two reasons why he shouldn't get the luggage out right away.
Reason #1 - He's just one slumper in a team full of slumpers. As mentioned in other prolific articles, the Rangers have been playing some quality teams with quality pitchers. Davis started the season crummy and then tried to get better on a steady diet of very good pitching. In the series again the Giants and now against the DBacks, he's showing better plate discipline and catching up to fastballs again. He could be coming out of right now. Meanwhile, there have been other guys on this team that have been struggling as well and Davis could get better when the rest of the team heals.
Reason #2 - Who else you gonna put there? Most pundits are saying that uber-prospect Smoak isn't ready yet. Max Ramirez, another prospect, is trying to learn the craft of catching, rather than the ubiquitous C/1B role (and "DH" prospect). Hank Blalock, and his missing rib bone, probably isn't healthy enough (or durable enough) to play that spot everyday. And the experiment of Andruw Jones at 1B is intriguing, but not an everyday solution.
A month ago, before the June gauntlet began, Rob and I were driving home after a great day of watching the Rangers win a doubleheader against the A's. We were listening to two post-game shows on the radio. On one station, the two guys were talking about how it was time for Davis to go to the Sooner state and figure out what's wrong with his hitting. On the other station, the two guys were talking about how his defense is really good (and it is!) and we could put up with crummy hitting for now.
I don't think that anyone but the Rangers braintrust know exactly what to do. But I do think that we gotta give him more time. Because he may just need a little more time to figure it out and I don't think we have any immediate, viable everyday options.
]]>If you've followed this team, even for a couple of years, the seemingly eternal question has always been "When are we gonna get some pitching in here?" Last year was no exception, being among baseball's leaders in ERA, HR allowed, runs allowed, etc. etc. etc. Why? We play in a 'hitter friendly' park; the Texas heat wears out pitchers; and no free agent in their right mind wants to come here are the typical reasons on why we can seem to pitch our way out of a paper bag.
And Ranger fans have also been wondering what's happened to the defense over the past few years. Until recently, we've had trouble identifying a long term solution at CF and SS. We haven't seen a catcher like Pudge in awhile and we've had a rotation of guys playing 1B since Texieria thankfully left town.
Nope, the questions are no longer about the pitching and defense. Our current pitching staff is pretty darned good and we're getting great performances out of old friends and new discoveries. The bullpen has shaped up and we have an above average closer, when healthy. On the defensive side, we have Young's move to 3B, the discovery of Elvis at SS, the ungodly stretches of Davis at 1B, an improved defensive Kinsler and solid outfield.
Nope, it's not the pitching and defense. Those elements have been keeping us in games this year. The question is this: What's going on with this offense? When's the last time you've asked that question about the Rangers. When was the last time you cringed not at the pitching, but at the hitting?
Looking at the last two months, one could find at least one explanation for the alleged swoon this offense: We’ve been playing good teams with good pitchers (it should be noted that we've avoided some good pitchers as well). And while the pundits have been going on and on about how Kinsler, Young, Andruw and others have been swooning as of late (and how Salty and Davis are rally killers) I believe there is an obvious reason why this offense is off track. And there are good reasons to believe that they’ll get back on track in late June and July. That reason? Hambone.
When Josh Hamilton went on the DL with an abdominal issue, one might surmise that the offense wasn’t going to get too derailed losing a .250BA cleanup hitter. The outfield law office of Andruw, Murphy, and Byrd seemed primed to take over in Hammy's absence.
However, since Hambone went on the DL, the offense has sunk to .218. .218?!?! A Rangers offense?
The way I see it is this: Even with Hamilton hitting below what would be hoped, its obvious that he’s still a dominate force in the lineup. When the top four hitters on the lineup card read KINSLER-YOUNG-HAMILTON-CRUZ, the manager and starting pitcher of the other team have to change their approach. When Ron Washington bumps Young to 3rd in the lineup (a place he admits that he's uncomfortable) and puts any other hitter (Elvis, Murphy, Andruw, Omar) in the 2 spot, the whole demographic changes. As a result, Young doesn’t get as many good pitches to hit (although his BA is still pretty stout). Cruz isn’t as effective as Hamilton in protecting the spot above him on the lineup card. Additionally, Kinsler hasn’t been getting on base as much (his walks are way down) and he can’t be as disruptive on the basepath.
Perhaps the most insane observation is that the Rangers have become a bit quieter on the basepath. Obviously, if you aren’t on base, you can’t steal (or double steal, a category the Rangers have all to themselves), apply the sac bunt or engage any other disruptive play. In the months of April and May, this team was dizzying on the path.
Yes, we have two below average lefties playing 1B. Yes, Davis and Salty are squashing more rallies than Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Yes, we have put everyone but Millwood in the number 2 spot in the batting lineup (although he's pitched so well this year, I think he'd probably hit pretty good too). And yes, we're probably leading the league in RISP.
But I think the rest of the lineup will hit much better with Josh Hamilton creating fear and doubt in the minds of opposing managers and pitchers. When Hambone's in the lineup, the other hitters will get better pitches, there'll be more baserunners on base to disrupt the flow of the opposing defense and the dominate offense that is the Rangers will no longer be a question.
]]>Why did they do so well in the month of May? Outside of a sweep by the Tigers and 2-out-of-3 by the Yankees, the Rangers were playing, at the time, teams that were average to below average. And those two team who took it to us (Tigers and Yankees) are division contenders at this point.
But then the Good Guys got to the month of June. An entire month of teams above .500, including the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Giants. The only palooka on the list was the Astros, and those 2 wins and one loss were sloppy, embarrassing games that were badly managed in the 9th inning and beyond.
It is said that any given team can beat any other team on any given day. For the Rangers in June, this is particularly true. It seems our Rangers can beat average to below average teams without much difficulty (month of May) and struggle against division contenders (month of June). It also appears that this team folds under the weight of a particularly good pitcher or, as mentioned above, faces a pitcher who's on for that game (this was particularly true with Scherzer last night).
We've been reminded by the local media that "contending year" was supposed to be 2010. Seeing what we've seen in the past two months, this may be pretty evident. If this team has blossomed early, then we'll know it after the Rangers play the Angels 6 times in 10 days. If not, this season could resemble the roller coasters of near by Six Flags: Good when playing the lapdogs; struggling when playing the big dogs.
]]>What continues to impress about this team is that it wins games even when they are having a hard time at the plate.
Also, I was glad to see the fan turnout for the second game. The first game had a weird sound because the crowd was not that large at 4 pm. In fact when I was walking by the concession stands, every worker was telling me "Welcome to the Rangers Ballpark." At that point, it was overkill.
Final note, CJ gets a win and a save in one day. That is not done very often.
Go Rangers.
]]>What promises this Memorial Day has for Rangers fan. We have the best record in the American League. Plus, we are playing the New York Yankees. I am not all that keen on the Yankees, but in order, to be taken seriously, the Rangers need to beat the Yankees while in the spotlight. Why? The Yankees have the ultimate argument ender with 27 World Series rings. Also, the Yankees are also as hot as the Rangers (8-2 in last 10). They get the spotlight because of media market size and past history.
Texas has historically not played well against the Pinstripes. The Yankees are 348-240 in the lifetime series against the Rangers. Last year, the Rangers won the season series 4-3. So is it a sign that Rangers are turning the corner against the Yankees? Too early to tell.
One thing is for certain that the Rangers have not had as good as a pitching staff to go up against the Nuevo Bronx Bombers. The Rangers already have 5 complete games. They only had six last year. The bullpen is rested because Washington has not needed them as much as last year.
With strong pitching and hopefully more patience at the plate with out hitters, Texas will show the Yankees that very good ball is being played in Arlington.
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